Hurrican Is Over and Division Begins Again

CHAPTER 12 - HURRICANE HAZARDS

A. HURRICANE: THE Miracle
B. HISTORICAL OCCURRENCE AND Bear upon ON THE AMERICAS: HURRICANE GILBERT
C. Hazard Assessment AND DISASTER MITIGATION
D. COPING WITH HURRICANES IN Pocket-size TOWNS AND VILLAGES
REFERENCES

SUMMARY

This affiliate describes the nature of hurricanes and their destructive adequacy. It outlines measures that can be taken to reduce the impact of a hurricane and, in particular, identifies appropriate mitigation measures for small towns and villages.

The destruction caused by hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America is a force that has shaped history and will shape the hereafter of the region. The danger arises from a combination of factors that characterize tropical cyclonic storms: ascension in bounding main level, violent winds, and heavy rainfall. In the Greater Caribbean area Basin from 1960 through 1988 (excluding the United States and U.S. territories) hurricanes caused more 20,000 deaths, affected 6 million people, and destroyed property worth over The states$nine.v billion (OFDA, 1989). The peachy majority of this harm was done to the Caribbean island countries, whose small economies are least able to withstand such impacts.

Information on hurricane damage have been collected since the discovery of the Americas, and recent statistics evidence that mitigation measures accept fabricated a difference since the 1930s. While the ferocity of the storms has not abated over the years, and population has increased substantially in the area, the casualty rate has decreased as a result of the incorporation of mitigation measures and the increased effectiveness of preparedness activities. This improvement in saving lives has been countered past a marked increase in property damage. This is a clear indicator that structural mitigation measures are non keeping pace with the rapid increase in development in vulnerable areas.

A important feature of this chapter is its detailed word of hurricane hazard mitigation in small towns and villages. In this setting, largely beyond the achieve of national mitigation activities, unproblematic strategies are both essential and highly effective.

A. HURRICANE: THE Miracle

1. HURRICANE Evolution
2. TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF HURRICANE OCCURRENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN
3. HAZARDOUS CHARACTERISTICS OF HURRICANES

"Tropical cyclone" is the scientific term for a closed meteorological circulation that develops over tropical waters. These large-scale non-frontal low-pressure systems occur throughout the world over zones referred to as "tropical cyclone basins" (NOAA, 1987). The name for them varies: in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific they are called "hurricanes" after the Mayan discussion for devil, in the northwest Pacific "typhoons," and in the South Pacific and Indian Sea merely "cyclones." Of all tropical whirlwind occurrences, 75 percent develop in the northern hemisphere, and of these, but one out of 3 are hurricanes in the northeast Pacific or northwest Atlantic (UNDRO, 1978). The storms of the northern hemisphere travel westward; those of the southern hemisphere motion eastward.

In the Atlantic tropical cyclone bowl, which includes the Atlantic Sea, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes originate more often than not in the northern Atlantic and to a lesser caste in the Caribbean. The areas most at risk are the Caribbean island countries n of Trinidad (73 strikes by major hurricanes between 1900 and 1988), Mexico and the southeastern United States, Central America north of Panama, and to a limited extent the northern declension of South America (Tomblin, 1979). Hurricanes also originate in the northeast Pacific, where they can affect the w declension of Mexico. Well-nigh of South America is essentially at no risk, because the tropical southwestern Atlantic and the southeastern Pacific are devoid of these meteorological occurrences, but systems originating on the west declension of Africa can potentially strike the northernmost part of the continent; for instance, in 1988 Hurricane Joan formed on the northwestern coast of Africa and struck the coast of Venezuela and Republic of colombia before hitting eastern Nicaragua. Figure 12-1 shows the paths of the hurricanes originating in the Atlantic, the Pacific, and the Caribbean.

1. HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT

a. Birth: Tropical Depression
b. Growth: Tropical Storm and Hurricane
c. Death: Landfall or Dissipation

All of the embryonic tropical depressions that develop into hurricanes originate in like meteorological conditions and exhibit the same life cycle. The distinct stages of hurricane development are defined by the "sustained velocity" of the system's winds-the wind velocity readings maintained for at least one minute well-nigh the middle of the Arrangement. In the determinative stages of a hurricane, the closed isobaric apportionment is called a tropical depression. If the sustained velocity of the winds exceeds 63km/h (39 mph), it becomes a tropical tempest. At this phase it is given a name and is considered a threat. When the winds exceed 119km/h (74 mph), the system becomes a hurricane, the most astringent class of tropical storm. Disuse occurs when the tempest moves into nontropical waters or strikes a landmass. If it travels into a nontropical environment it is called a subtropical tempest and subtropical depression; if landfall occurs. the winds decelerate and information technology becomes again a tropical storm and depression. Figure 12-ii summarizes this nomenclature.

Figure 12-1 - OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORMS AND CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE ^1/

^one/ Wind strength of Beaufort eight and above

Source: Munchener Ruck. Mapa Mundial de los Riesgos de la Naturaleza. (Munich, Federal Democracy of Deutschland, Munchener Ruckversicherungs: 1988)

a. Birth: Tropical Depression

Hurricanes are generated at latitudes of 8 to fifteen degrees north and s of the Equator as a outcome of the normal release of heat and moisture on the surface of tropical oceans. They aid maintain the atmospheric oestrus and moisture residue between tropical and non-tropical areas. If they did non be, the equatorial oceans would accumulate oestrus continuously (Landsberg, 1960).

Hurricane formation requires a sea surface temperature of at least 27 degrees Celsius (81 degrees Fahrenheit). In the summer months, the ocean temperatures in the Caribbean and Atlantic can reach 29 degrees (84 degrees), making them prime locations for inception. The surface water warms the air, which rises and then is blocked past warmer air coming from the easterly winds. The meeting of these two air masses creates an atmospheric inversion. At this stage, thunderstorms develop and the inversion may be broken, effectively lowering the atmospheric pressure.

b. Growth: Tropical Storm and Hurricane

The growth of the organisation occurs when pressure level in the center of the tempest drops well below one thousand millibars (mb) while the outer boundary pressure remains normal. When pressure drops, the merchandise winds are propelled in a spiral blueprint past the earth's rotation. The strong torque forces created by the discrepancy in force per unit area generate wind velocities proportional to slope of pressure. Every bit the energy level increases, the air apportionment pattern is inward towards the low pressure center and upward, in a counter-clockwise spiral in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. The cycle perpetuates itself and the organized storm begins a translational movement with velocities of around 32 km/h during formation and up to 90km/h during the extra-tropical life.

The zone of highest precipitation, most violent winds, and rising bounding main level is adjacent to the outer wall of the "middle." The direction of the winds, however, is not towards the middle but is tangent to the centre wall nigh 50km from the geometric center (Mathur, 1987). The organized walls of clouds are composed of adjoining bands which can typically attain a total diameter of 450km (Earthscan No. 34-a, 1983). The central eye, unlike the residuum of the storm, is characterized as an expanse of relatively low wind speeds and no cloud cover with an average diameter of 50-80km and a vertical apportionment of up to 15km.

Hurricane classification is based on the intensity of the storm, which reflects impairment potential. The most commonly used categorization method is the i developed by H. Saffir and R.H. Simpson (Figure 12-3). The determination of a category level depends mostly on barometric pressure and sustained wind velocities. Levels of tempest surge fluctuate profoundly due to atmospheric and bathymetric conditions. Thus, the expected tempest surge levels are general estimates of a typical hurricane occurrence.

Figure 12-two CLASSIFICATION OF HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT

Surround	Evolution	CRITERIA
Tropical	Depression	max sustained winds < or = 63 km/h (39 miles/h)
	Tropical Tempest	63 km/h < sustained winds < 119 km/h (74 miles/h)
	Hurricane	sustained winds > or = 119km/h (74 miles/h)
	Tropical Depression (dissipation)	max sustained winds < or = 63km/h (39 miles/h)
Nontropical	Subtropical Storm (dissipation)	63km/h < sustained winds < 119km/h (74 miles/h)
	Subtropical Depression (dissipation)	max sustained winds < or = 63km/h (39 miles/h)

Source: Adapted from Neumann, C.J. et al Tropical Cyclones of the N Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1986 (Washington, D.C.: U.Due south. Section of Commerce, NOAA, 1987).

Figure 12-3 SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE (SSH)

Hurricane Category Number	Sustained Winds		Atmospheric Pressure in the Eye (millibars)	Storm	Surge	Damage
	(km/h)	(miles/h)		(meters)	(feet)	Level
one	119 - 153	74 - 95	980	1.2 - 1.5	iv.0 - iv.9	Depression
two	154 - 177	96 - 110	965 - 979	one.eight - 2.four	5.9 - 7.nine	Moderate
3	179 - 209	111 - 130	945 - 964	two.vii - 3.7	8.9 - 12.2	Extensive
4	211 - 249	131 - 155	920 - 944	4.0 - five.5	13.0 - 18.0	Extreme
five	> 249	> 155	< 920	> 5.five	> 18.0	Catastrophic

Source: Adapted from Oliver, J., and Fairbridge, R. The Encyclopedia of Climatology (New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Co., Inc., 1987).

c. Decease: Landfall or Dissipation

Typically, a hurricane eventually dissipates over colder waters or state nearly ten days later the genesis of the system. If it travels into a non-tropical environment, information technology loses its energy source and falls into the dominant weather condition pattern information technology encounters. If, on the other manus, information technology hits land, the loss of energy in combination with the increased roughness of the terrain will cause information technology to dissipate quickly (Frank, 1984). When it reaches country in populated areas, it becomes ane of the most devastating of all natural phenomena.

2. TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF HURRICANE OCCURRENCE IN THE Caribbean

The official hurricane season in the Greater Caribbean region begins the outset of June and lasts through Nov 30, with 84 per centum of all hurricanes occurring during August and September (Frank, 1984). Figure 12-4 shows the seasonal graphic symbol of hurricanes. The greatest risk in United mexican states and the western Caribbean is at the beginning and end of the season, and in the eastern Caribbean during mid-season.

Every year over 100 tropical depressions or potential hurricanes are monitored, simply an average of only ten reach tropical storm strength and six get hurricanes. These overall averages suggest that activeness is uniform from year to yr but historical records indicate a high degree of variance, with long periods of tranquillity and activity (Effigy 12-v). The Atlantic basin has the widest seasonal variability. In 1907, for case, not a unmarried tropical storm reached hurricane intensity, while in 1969, there were 12 hurricanes in the northern Atlantic (NOAA, 1987).

Because the cycles vary in periodicity and duration, prediction is difficult. Recent forecasting developments, connecting hurricane activity levels with El Niño and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation have fabricated it possible to predict the variance in Atlantic seasonal hurricane activeness with an accuracy of forty to 50 per centum (American Meteorological Society, 1988), but this degree of accuracy, while considered high past meteorological standards, is non good enough for planners trying to develop appropriate emergency response systems. There is no doubt that the quality of forecasting will go on to better, but until that happens planners must rely on historical information to calculate the probability of occurrence in a given year. Simpson and Lawrence in 1971 used historical data to make these calculations for the entire due east coast of the United states and Gulf of United mexican states coast, using 80km (50 miles) segments (ESCAP/WMO, 1977).

3. HAZARDOUS CHARACTERISTICS OF HURRICANES

a. Winds
b. Rainfall
c. Storm Surge

a. Winds

Hurricane wind speeds can attain up to 250km/h (155mph) in the wall of the hurricane, and gusts tin exceed 360km/h (224mph).The subversive power of wind increases with the square of its speed. Thus, a tripling of wind speed increases destructive power by a gene of nine. Topography plays an of import function: wind speed is decreased at depression elevations by physical obstacles and in sheltered areas, while it is increased over exposed colina crests (Davenport, 1985; see Effigy 12-6). Another contributor to destruction is the upward vertical strength that accompanies hurricanes; the college the vertical extension of a hurricane, the greater the vertical pulling upshot.

Destruction is caused either by the direct impact of the air current or by flying debris. The wind itself primarily damages agricultural crops. Entire forests have been flattened past forces that pulled the tree roots from the earth. Man-made fixed structures are also vulnerable. Alpine buildings can milk shake or even collapse. The desperate barometric force per unit area differences in a hurricane can make well-enclosed structures explode and the suction can elevator up roofs and entire buildings. Merely most of the destruction, expiry, and injury by air current is due to flying debris (ECLAC/UNEP, 1979), the bear on force of which is directly related to its mass and the square of its velocity. The damage acquired by a flying car to whatever information technology strikes will exist greater than if the wind had acted lonely. Improperly fastened roof sheets or tiles are the about mutual projectiles. Other frequent objects are antennas, telephone poles, trees, and detached edifice parts.

Effigy 12-four - NUMBER OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES (open up bar) AND HURRICANES (solid bar) OBSERVED ON EACH Twenty-four hours, MAY 1-DECEMBER 31, 1886 THROUGH 1986, IN THE Northward ATLANTIC Sea

Source: Neumann, C.J. et al. Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1986 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, NOM, 1987).

Figure 12-5 - Almanac DISTRIBUTION OF THE 845 RECORDED TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE Due north ATLANTIC REACHING AT To the lowest degree TROPICAL Tempest Strength (open up bar) AND THE 496 REACHING HURRICANE Strength (solid bar), 1886 THROUGH 1986

Note: The average number of such storms is eight.four and 4.nine respectively.

Source: Neumann, C.J. et al Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1986 (Washington, D.C.: U.Southward. Department of Commerce, NOAA, 1987).

FIGURE 12-6 Isle TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS ON MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS

Source: Davenport, A.G. Georgiou, P.One thousand., and Surry, D. A Hurricane Current of air Gamble Report for the Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica and Belize with Special Consideration to the Influence of Topography. (London, Ontario, Canada: Purlieus Layer Wind Tunnel Laboratory, The Academy of Western Ontario, 1985).

Building standards to withstand high wind velocities are prescribed in almost all countries that confront a high risk. The codes recommend that structures maintain a certain level of forcefulness in order to withstand the local average wind velocity pressure, calculated past averaging wind pressure over a period of x minutes for the highest expected wind speed in fifty years. The Caribbean Compatible Building Lawmaking (CUBIC) nether consideration past the Caribbean countries, prescribes the reference wind velocity pressure for each country. Figure 12-7 shows the relationship betwixt current of air speed, expressed in the codes in terms of meters per second rather than kilometers or miles per hour, and full general property harm. Notation the correlation between this and the SSH scale in Effigy 12-3.

b. Rainfall

The rains that back-trail hurricanes are extremely variable and hard to predict (ECLAC/UNEP, 1979). They tin be heavy and last several days or can dissipate in hours. The local topography, humidity, and the forward speed of a hurricane in the incidence of precipitation are recognized as important, but attempts to make up one's mind the straight connectedness have and then far proved futile.

Intense rainfall causes two types of destruction. The first is from seepage of water into buildings causing structural damage; if the rain is steady and persistent, structures may simply collapse from the weight of the absorbed h2o. The 2d, more than widespread and common and much more than damaging, is from inland flooding, which puts at risk all valleys forth with their structures and critical transportation facilities, such as roads and bridges. Chapter 8 describes flooding in more particular.

Landslides, every bit secondary hazards, are oftentimes triggered past heavy precipitation. Areas with medium to steep slopes become oversaturated and failure occurs along the weakest zones. Thus, low-lying valley areas are not the only sites vulnerable to precipitation. Chapter ten is devoted to this phenomenon.

c. Storm Surge

A storm surge is a temporary rise in body of water level caused by the water being driven over land primarily by the on-shore hurricane strength winds and just secondarily past the reduction in bounding main-level barometric pressure between the eye of the tempest and the outer region. A rough human relationship betwixt atmospheric pressure and the storm surge level was shown in Figure 12-3. Another estimate is that for every drop of 100 millibars (mb) in barometric pressure, a 1m (3.28 feet) rise in water level is expected. The magnitude of the surge at a specific site is also a office of the radius of the maximum hurricane winds, the speed of the system's approach, and the foreshore bathymetry. It is hither that the difficulty arises in predicting storm surge levels. Historical records betoken that the increment in hateful bounding main level can be negligible or can be as much as 7.5 meters (24.6 feet) (ECLAC/UNEP, 1979). The most vulnerable coastal zones are those with the highest historical frequencies of landfalls. Regardless of its tiptop, the great dome of water is often 150km (93 miles) wide and moves toward the coastline where the hurricane eye makes landfall.

Figure 12-vii Relationship BETWEEN Current of air SPEED AND GENERAL PROPERTY DAMAGE

Wind Speed	Damage
22-35m/sec	minor
36-45 m/sec	intermediate (loss of windows)
>45m/sec	structural

Source: ECLAC/UNEP. Natural Disasters Overview. Meeting of Government-Nominated Experts to Review the Draft Action Plan for the Wider Caribbean Region, Caracas, Venezuela, 28 January - one February (Caracas: ECLAC/UNEP, 1979).

Storm surges nowadays the greatest threat to coastal communities. 90 percent of hurricane fatalities are due to drowning acquired by a tempest surge. Severe flooding from a storm surge affects low-lying areas upwardly to several kilometers inland. The summit of the surge can be greater if human being-made structures in bays and estuaries constrict h2o flow and compound the flooding. If heavy rain accompanies storm surge and the hurricane landfall occurs at a peak loftier tide, the consequences tin be catastrophic. The excess water from the heavy rains inland creates fluvial flooding, and the simultaneous increase in sea level blocks the seaward flow of rivers, leaving nowhere for the water to go.

B. HISTORICAL OCCURRENCE AND Bear on ON THE AMERICAS: HURRICANE GILBERT

1. JAMAICA
two. Mexico

Hurricanes are past far the most frequent hazardous phenomena in the Caribbean. Tomblin (1981) states that in the last 250 years the Due west Indies has been devastated by 3 volcanic eruptions, viii earthquakes, and 21 major hurricanes. If tropical storms are also taken into business relationship, the Greater Caribbean has suffered from hundreds of such events.

The economical and social consequences of this phenomenon are astringent, especially in less adult countries, where a significant percentage of the GDP can be destroyed by a single upshot. Figure 12-eight lists the major hurricanes and tropical storms in the Americas and the harm they acquired.

Without a comprehensive list of costs and casualties, the economic and social disruption caused past a disastrous event is hard to grasp. It is not the purpose of this chapter to provide all this information, which can exist plant in the dandy volume of literature on individual events. But a brief review of how one hurricane affected various sectors in Mexico and Jamaica will help planners to empathize the complexities of the turmoil that such a natural outcome can cause.

Hurricane Gilbert struck the Caribbean and the Gulf Coast of Mexico in 1988, causing comprehensive damage in Mexico, Jamaica, Haiti, Guatemala, Honduras, Dominican Democracy, Venezuela, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Arriving in Saint Lucia as a tropical depression, it resulted in damage estimated at U.s.a.$ii.5 meg from the flooding and landslides caused by the heavy pelting (Caribbean area Disaster News No.xv/16,1988).

The physical variations in this hurricane resulted in different types of damage. It was considered a "dry" hurricane when information technology struck Jamaica, discharging less precipitation than would exist expected. Thus, nearly of the impairment was due to wind force which blew away roofs. Past the time it approached Mexico, however, information technology was accompanied by torrential rains, which caused massive flooding far inland.

Hurricane Gilbert began equally a tropical wave on September three, 1988, on the north coast of Africa. Six days later, the organisation was across the Atlantic and had evolved into Gilbert as a tropical tempest. It struck Jamaica on September 12 every bit a Category 3 (SSH Scale) hurricane and traveled westward over the entire length of the island. Gaining strength as information technology moved northwest, information technology striking the Yucatan Peninsula, in Mexico, on September fourteen, as a Category 5 (SSH Scale) hurricane. By September 16 it had been weakened and finally dissipated later on moving inland over the east coast of United mexican states.

Sustained winds in Jamaica were measured at 223 km/h, and greater across high ridges. The barometric pressure was the everyman always recorded in the Western Hemisphere at 888mb, 200km east-southeast of Jamaica. The barometric force per unit area when it striking Jamaica was 960mb. The forrad speed was 31 km/h. The middle had a 56km diameter, but little storm surge occurred in Jamaica. Average rainfall registered from 250mm to 550mm. Serious flooding due to storm surge and heavy rains was non a problem. Landslides occurred at high elevations where virtually of the rainfall was concentrated.

By the time Hurricane Gilbert hit United mexican states it had changed characteristics. In the Yucatan the storm surge reached 5 meters in elevation and rainfall averaged 400mm. By the time Gilbert struck the northern declension of Mexico, the winds had increased to 290km/h and the storm surge had reached 6 meters.

1. JAMAICA

a. Affected Population and Damage to Social Sectors
b. Touch on on the Economy and Damage to Productive Sectors
c. Damage to Natural Resource

a. Afflicted Population and Impairment to Social Sectors

Even though the loss of life was limited to 45 reported deaths, 500,000 people lost their homes when approximately 280,000 houses-almost 55 percent of the housing stock-were damaged. Of these, 14,000, or 5 percent, were totally destroyed and 64,000 were seriously damaged.

b. Touch on on the Economic system and Harm to Productive Sectors

The Planning Institute of Jamaica estimated the total straight damage at US$956 meg. Nearly half was accounted for by losses from agriculture, tourism, and industry; thirty percent from housing, health, and education infrastructure; and 20 percent from economical infrastructure. The economic projections for 1988 had to be adjusted dramatically, to allow for expected losses of US$130 million in export earnings, and more than US$100 million in tourism earnings; therefore, instead of the expected 5 percent growth in Gdp, a decline of 2 percent was projected. Other estimates were for increases in inflation (thirty pct), government public expenditures (United states of america$200 million), and public sector deficit (from two.8 percent to ten.6 percent of GDP).

Effigy 12-eight MAJOR TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL Whirlwind Bowl

REGION/Land	Year/MONTH	CASUALTIES	PEOPLE AFFECTED	Damage THOUSANDS/US$	HURRICANE NAME	SOURCE
CARIBBEAN
Antigua	1792 00					Tomblin
	1950 09	2		one,000	Dog	OFDA
	1960 09	2			Donna	OFDA
	1966 09					OFDA
Barbados	1780 00	4,326				Tomblin
	1786 00					Tomblin
	1831 00	2,000				Tomblin
	1955 09	57			Janet	OFDA
Belize	1931 09	1,500		7,500		OFDA
	1955 09	xvi		5,000	Janet	OFDA
	1961 09	275		60,000		OFDA
	1974 09		70,000	4,000	Carmen, Fifi	OFDA
	1978 09	5	half dozen,000	6,000	Greta	OFDA
Cuba	1768 00	one,000				Tomblin
	1844 00					Tomblin
	1846 00	500				Tomblin
	1926 x	600				OFDA
	1932 11	2,500				OFDA
	1935 09	35	500			OFDA
	1948 09	3		12,000		OFDA
	1948 10	11	300	6,000		OFDA
	1963 10	one,750				Tomblin
	1966 09	5	156,000	18,000	Inez	OFDA
	1968 10	0			Gladys	OFDA
	1982 06	24	105,000	85,000		OFDA
	1985 11	4	476,891		Kate	OFDA
Dominica	1806 00					Tomblin
	1834 00	200				Tomblin
	1963 09			two,600	Edith	OFDA
	1979 08	40	70,000	44,650	David, Frederick	OFDA
	1984 10	two	10,000	2,000	Klaus	OFDA
Dominican Commonwealth	1930 09	2.000	6,000	40,000		OFDA
	1963 ten	400		60,000	Flora	OFDA
	1964 08	7		1,000	Cleo	OFDA
	1966 09	74	7,000	v,000	Inez	OFDA
	1979 08	i,400	1,200,000	150.000	David, Frederick	OFDA
	1987 09	3		23,700	Emily	OFDA
Grenada	1963 09	half-dozen			Flora	OFDA
Haiti	1909 11	150				OFDA
	1915 08	1,600				OFDA
	1935 10	2,150				OFDA
	1954 10	410	250,000		Hazel	OFDA
	1963 10	five,000		180,000	Flora	OFDA
	1964 08	100	80.000	x,000	Cleo	OFDA
	1966 09	480	67,000	20,000	Inez	OFDA
	1979 08	8	one,110		David	OFDA
	1980 08	300	330,000	40,000	Alien	OFDA
	1988 09	54	870,000	91,286	Gilbert	OFDA
Jamaica	1722 00	400				Tomblin
	1780 00	300				Tomblin
	1786 00					Tomblin
	1880 00	thirty				Tomblin
	1903 08	65				OFDA
	1912 11	142				OFDA
	1917 09	57				OFDA
	1933 10	10				OFDA
	1935 ten		2,000			OFDA
	1944 08	32				OFDA
	1951 08	154	20,000	56.000	Charlie	OFDA
	1963 10	11		11,525	Flora	OFDA
	1980 08	six	30,000	64,000	Conflicting	OFDA
	1985 11	7		5,200	Kate	OFDA
	1988 09	49	810,000	1,000.000	Gilbert	OFDA
St. Kitts/Nevis	1772 00					Tomblin
	1792 00					Tomblin
	1928 09					OFDA
	1955 01					OFDA
Saint Lucia	1960 07				Abby	OFDA
	1963 09	10		3,465	Edith	OFDA
	1980 08	9	seventy,000	87,990	Alien	OFDA
St. Vincent	1898 00	300				Tomblin
	1955 09	122			Janet	OFDA
	1980 08		20,000	sixteen,300	Alien	OFDA
	1987 09		200	v,300	Emily	OFDA
Trinidad/Tobago	1933 06	13		3,000		OFDA
	1963 09	24		30,000	Flora	OFDA
CENTRAL AMERICA
Costa rica	1988 10	28	120,000		Joan	OFDA
El salvador	1969 09	ii	4,600	1,600	Francelia	OFDA
Guatemala	1969 09	269	ten,200	xv,000	Francelia	OFDA
Honduras	1969 09		viii,000	xix,000	Francelia	OFDA
	1974 09	8,000	600,000	540,000	Fifi	OFDA
	1978 09		2,000	1,000	Greta	OFDA
Nicaragua	1971 09	35	2,800	380	Edith	OFDA
	1988 x	120	300,000	400,000	Joan	OFDA
Panama	1988 10	7	vii,000	sixty,000	Joan	OFDA
North AMERICA (EXCLUDING THE UNITED STATES)
United mexican states	1951 08	50				OFDA
	1955 09	300			Hilda	OFDA
	1955 09	500		twoscore,000	Janet	OFDA
	1960 10	960				OFDA
	1961 xi	436			Tara	OFDA
	1966 10	14	80,000	24,000	Inez	OFDA
	1967 08	77	271,000	184,000	Katrina, Beulah	OFDA
	1975 10	29			Olivia	OFDA
	1976 10	600	175,000	100,000	Liza	OFDA
	1977 09	10	l,000		Anita	OFDA
	1982 09	225	50,000	30,000	Paul	OFDA
	1983 ten	135			Tico	OFDA
	1988 09	240	100,000		Gilbert	OFDA

Sources: Tomblin, J. "Natural Disasters in the Caribbean: A Review of Hazards and Vulnerability," in Caribbean Disaster Preparedness Seminar, St. Lucia, June, 1979 (Washington, D.C.: OFDA/USAID, 1979); and Office of Foreign Disaster Aid, U.S. Agency for International Development (OFDA/USAID). Disaster History: Significant Data on Major Disasters Worldwide, 1900-Nowadays. July, 1989. (Washington, DC.- OFDA/USAID. 1089).

Equally expected, the economical activeness most afflicted was agronomics, with the total destruction of banana and broiler production and of more than than fifty percent of the coffee and kokosnoot crops. Capital losses to the sector were estimated at J$0.7 billion. According to some calculations, the loss of acquirement through 1992 will be United states$214 million.

Other productive sectors were also affected seriously. Manufacturing suffered J$600 one thousand thousand (in 1989 dollars) in losses, mainly from a decline of 12 percent in its exports. Tourism lost US$90 meg in strange substitution, with v percent fewer company arrivals in the third quarter of 1988 than during the same time flow in 1987. Loss of electricity decreased bauxite production by 14.2 percent for that quarter compared to the tertiary quarter of the previous year, and alumina exports declined by 21 per centum.

c. Damage to Natural Resources

The coastal resources of Jamaica suffered extensive harm from hurricane forces. It is estimated that l percentage of the beaches were seriously eroded, with the northeast coast existence the nearly affected. An estimated sixty percent of all the trees in the mangrove areas were lost, 50 percent of the oyster culture was unsalvageable, and other non-measurable harm occurred to coral reefs and the h2o quality of the island (Salary, 1989).

ii. MEXICO

a. Affected Population and Damage to Social Sectors
b. Touch on the Economy and Damage to Productive Sectors
c. Damage to Natural Resources

a. Affected Population and Harm to Social Sectors

The Authorities of Mexico reported that the hurricane caused 200 deaths and approximately 200,000 homeless. In the land of Nuevo Leon, where the Monterrey surface area suffered from extensive flooding, 100 people died and 30,000 housing units were destroyed.

b. Bear on on the Economic system and Damage to Productive Sectors

The tourism industry suffered the greatest harm.

The tourist areas of the state of Quintana Roo, for example, suffered The states$100 million in direct damage and lost an estimated U.s.a.$90 million in revenues. The Inter-American Development Bank, after evaluating the harm to infrastructure in this sector, lent US$41.5 1000000 for reconstruction.

c. Harm to Natural Resources

The touch on across the Yucatan Peninsula in terms of harm to wild animals, beaches, and coral reefs was much higher than on the coasts of Jamaica. Extensive reduction in beaches and coral reefs was reported, and large numbers of birds lost their lives.

C. Run a risk ASSESSMENT AND DISASTER MITIGATION

1. DETERMINING THE RISK POSED BY HURRICANES
2. MITIGATING AGAINST HURRICANE Take a chance

1. DETERMINING THE RISK POSED BY HURRICANES

The risk posed by hurricanes to a particular country is a function of the likelihood that a hurricane of a certain intensity will strike it and of the vulnerability of the state to the impact of such a hurricane. Vulnerability is a circuitous concept, which has physical, social, economical and political dimensions. It includes such things as the ability of structures to withstand the forces of a hazardous event, the extent to which a community possesses the means to organize itself to gear up for and deal with emergencies, the extent to which a land's economic system depends on a single production or service that is easily affected by the disaster, and the caste of centralization of public decision-making (Wilches-Chaux, 1989).

Population centers and economic activities in the region are highly vulnerable to disruption and damage from the furnishings of extreme weather. They are largely concentrated in coastal plains and low-lying areas subject to tempest surges and landborne flooding. High demands placed on existing lifeline infrastructure, combined with inadequate funds for the expansion and maintenance of these vital systems, have increased their susceptibility to breakdowns. Uncontrolled growth in urban centers degrades the physical environs and its natural protective capabilities. Building sites safe from natural hazards, pollution, and accidents have become inaccessible to the urban poor, who are left to build their shelters on steep hillsides or in flood-prone areas (Bender, 1989). Agriculture, particularly the tillage of bananas for export, is often good without the necessary conservation measures respective to the soil, slope, and rainfall characteristics of the area.

Communities, countries, or regions differ greatly in vulnerability, and hence in the effects they may suffer from hurricanes of similar strength. The very size of a land is a critical determinant of vulnerability: minor island nations can be affected over their entire area, and major infrastructure and economic activities may be crippled past a single outcome. Scarce resource that were earmarked for development projects accept to be diverted to relief and reconstruction, setting back economical growth.

To assess future risks, planners must study historical trends and correlate them with probable future changes. The main crusade of increasing vulnerability is the population move to high-take chances areas. Most cities in the West Indies are in low coastal zones threatened past storm surge (Tomblin, 1979), and they continue to grow.

The economic sectors most affected by hurricanes are agronomics and tourism. Together, these stand for a major portion of the economic system for the countries in the Caribbean area. Particularly for island countries, agriculture is the most vulnerable activity (ECLAC/UNEP, 1979). Hurricanes have disastrous effects on banana crops in particular. During Hurricane Alien, in August of 1980, Saint Lucia suffered The states$36.5 million in damage, with 97 percent of the banana plantations destroyed. In St. Vincent 95 percent, and in Dominica 75 percent, of the banana plantations were ruined (Earthscan No. 34a, 1983). Damage to the tourism industry is more difficult to quantify since it includes many other economically identifiable sectors such as transportation and hotel services.

Ingather statistics rarely account for long-term losses. The increased salinity in the soil due to the storm surge can have detrimental effects on production in subsequent years. For example, Hurricane Fifi decreased production in Honduras by xx percent the yr information technology occurred, but in the following year product was down by 50 percent. How much of this reduction was due to the increase in salinity is unclear, but it is known that common salt destroys vegetation slowly.

2. MITIGATING Against HURRICANE RISK

a. Reduction of Take chances at the International Level
b. Reduction of Adventure at the National Level
c. Reduction of Gamble at the Local Level

Once the risk posed past hurricanes is understood, specific mitigation measures can be taken to reduce the take a chance to communities, infrastructure, and economic activities. Human and economical losses tin be greatly reduced through well-organized efforts to implement appropriate preventive measures, in public awareness and in issuing timely warnings. Thanks to these measures, countries in the region take experienced a desperate reduction in the number of deaths caused by hurricanes.

Mitigation measures are almost cost-constructive when implemented as office of the original plan or structure of vulnerable structures. Typical examples are the application of building standards designed for hurricane-forcefulness winds, the avoidance of areas that can be affected by storm surge or flooding, and the planting of windbreaks to protect wind-sensitive crops. Retrofitting buildings or other projects to make them hurricane-resistant is more costly and sometimes impossible. In one case a project is located in a flood-prone expanse, it may not exist feasible to move information technology to safer ground.

The overall record on mitigation of hurricane take a chance in the Caribbean and Central America is not very encouraging. Cases abound of new investments in the public or productive sectors that were exposed to significant hazard adventure because of inappropriate design or location, and even of projects that were rebuilt in the same way on the same site after having been destroyed a outset time. Other cases can be cited of schools and hospitals funded with bilateral assistance that were congenital to design standards suitable for the donor country but incapable of resisting hurricane-strength winds prevalent in the recipient country.

The tourism sector in the Caribbean is notorious for its apparent disregard of the risk of hurricanes and associated hazards. A hotel complex built with insufficient setback from the high-water mark non only risks being damaged by moving ridge action and storm surge, just interferes with the normal processes of beach formation and dune stabilization, thus reducing the effectiveness of a natural system of protection confronting wave activity. After the first serious damage is incurred the owners of the hotel will most probable determine to rebuild on the same site and invest in a seawall, rather than consider moving the structure to a recommended setback.

a. Reduction of Chance at the International Level

In the by three decades the technological capacity to monitor hurricanes has improved dramatically, and along with information technology the casualty rate has declined. New technology permits the identification of a tropical depression and on-fourth dimension monitoring as the hurricane develops. The greatest accelerate has occurred in the United states, but developing countries do good greatly because of the effective alert mechanism. The reckoner models also generate vast quantities of information useful for planners in developing nations.

Computer models that approximate tracking, landfall, and potential damage were start implemented in 1968 by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). At this point there are five operational track guidance models: Beta and Advection Model (BAM), Climatology and Persistance (CLIPER), a Statistical-dynamical model (NHC90), Quasi-Lagrangian model (QLM) and the barotropic VICBAR. They vary in chapters and methodology and occasionally outcome in conflicting predictions, though fewer than formerly. The NHC evaluates incoming data on all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific tropical cyclone basin and problems an official rails and intensity forecast consisting of center positions and maximum one-infinitesimal air current speeds for 0, 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours.

The NHC has also developed a hurricane surge model named Sea, Lake and Overland Surges (SLOSH) to simulate the effects of hurricanes as they approach state. Its predecessor SPLASH, used in the 1960s, was useful for modeling hurricane effects along polish coastlines, simply SLOSH adds to this a capability to gauge flooding in inland areas. These results can be used in planning evacuation routes.

A computerized model that assesses the long-term vulnerability of littoral areas to tropical cyclones has as well been developed. This model, the National Hurricane Center Gamble Analysis Program (HURISK), uses historical data on 852 hurricanes since 1886. The file contains storm positions, maximum sustained winds, and central pressures (unavailable for early years) at six-hr intervals. When the user provides a location and the radius of interest, the model determines hurricane occurrences, dates, storm headings, maximum winds, and forward speeds. Vulnerability studies begin when the median occurrence date, management distribution, distribution of maximum winds, probability of at least ten number of hurricanes passing over north consecutive years, and gamma distribution of speeds are adamant. Planners can use these objective return period calculations to evaluate an otherwise subjective state of affairs.

b. Reduction of Risk at the National Level

One of the most important steps a country tin can have to mitigate the impact of hurricanes is to contain risk assessment and mitigation measure pattern into development planning. The design of basic mitigation measures begins with the compilation of all historical records of one-time hurricane activeness in the country, to determine the frequency and severity of past occurrences. Reliable meteorological data for each issue, ranging from technical studies to newspaper reports, should be gathered. With all the information in place, a study of (1) the distribution of occurrences for months of a year, (2) frequencies of air current strengths and direction, (3) frequencies of tempest surges of diverse heights along different coastal sections, and (4) frequencies of river flooding and their spatial distribution should be undertaken. The statistical assay should provide quantitative support for planning strategies.

The design of mitigation measures should follow the statistical assay and consider long-term effects. Both non-structural and structural mitigation measures should exist considered, taking into account the difficulties of implementation.

Not-structural measures consist of policies and development practices that are designed to avoid take a chance, such as land use guidelines, forecasting and alarm, and public awareness and education. Much credit for the reduction of casualties from hurricanes in the Caribbean should be given to the Pan Caribbean Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Project (PCDPPP), which has worked effectively with national governments on motivating the population to take preventive measures, such as strengthening roof tie-downs, and on establishing forecasting and alarm measures.

Structural mitigation measures include the development of edifice codes to control building design, methods, and materials. The construction of breakwaters, diversion channels, and storm surge gates and the institution of tree lines are a few examples of mitigation from a public works standpoint.

c. Reduction of Risk at the Local Level

The effectiveness of national emergency preparedness offices of countries in the region is frequently seriously express because of inadequate institutional support and a shortage of technical and fiscal resources. In the smaller Caribbean islands, these offices are mostly ane-person operations, with the person in charge responsible for many other not-emergency matters. It would be unrealistic to expect them to be able to human activity effectively at the local level in cases of area-wide emergencies, such equally those acquired by hurricanes. It is therefore essential to heighten the capacity of the population in pocket-sized towns and villages to prepare for and reply to emergencies by their ain means.

From 1986 through 1989, the OAS/Natural Hazards Project has worked with several Eastern Caribbean countries to evaluate the vulnerability of modest towns and villages to natural hazards, and train local disaster managers and community leaders in organizing risk assessments and mitigation in their communities. These activities take resulted in the preparation of a training transmission with accompanying video for use by local leaders. This effort has focused on lifeline networks-transportation, communications, h2o, electricity, sanitation-and critical facilities related to the welfare of the inhabitants, such as hospitals and health centers, schools, police and fire stations, customs facilities, and emergency shelters.

The remainder of this chapter is dedicated to a summary overview of the process by which the leadership in a minor town or village can introduce constructive risk mitigation.

D. COPING WITH HURRICANES IN Minor TOWNS AND VILLAGES

1. Inventory of Lifeline Networks and Critical Facilities
2. Learning the Operation of Lifelines and Facilities and Their Potential for Disruption by Hurricane
iii. Checking the Vulnerability of the Lifelines and Facilities through Field Inspection and Investigation
4. Establishing a Positive Working Relationship with the Agencies and Companies that Manage the Infrastructure and Services of the Customs
5. Developing an Understanding of the Total Run a risk to the Community
6. Formulating a Mitigation Strategy

The degree to which local communities can survive impairment and disruption from severe storms and hurricanes besides depends to a big extent on how well the basic services and infrastructure, the common goods of the community, stand up to the wind and rain accompanying these storms. Whereas individual families bear total responsibility for preparing their ain shelter to withstand the furnishings of storms, they have a much more than express role in ensuring that their common services are safeguarded, nevertheless 1 that cannot be neglected.

Non-governmental agencies involved in low income housing structure and upgrading accept developed applied and low cost measures for increasing the resistance of self-built houses to hurricane force winds. Typical of efforts of this nature is the work performed by the Construction Resources and Evolution Centre (CRDC) in Jamaica, which produced educational materials and organized workshops on house and roof reconstruction following Hurricane Gilbert.

The chief responsibleness for introducing an awareness and concern in the community regarding the hazard posed past hurricanes to the common good rests with the community leadership and local-or district-disaster coordinator, if such a function exists. Information technology involves a lengthy process of identifying the issues, mobilizing resources from within the community and from outside, and edifice support for common action.

Such a process consists of half dozen steps: (one) making an inventory of lifeline networks and critical facilities; (2) learning the functioning of these and their potential for disruption past a hurricane; (3) checking the vulnerability of the lifelines and critical facilities through field inspection and investigation; (4) establishing a positive working relationship with the agencies and companies that manage the infrastructure and services of the community; (5) developing an understanding of the total risk to the community; (6) formulating and implementing a mitigation strategy.

1. Inventory of Lifeline Networks and Disquisitional Facilities

Lifeline networks and critical facilities are those elements in the economic and social infrastructure that provide essential goods and services to the population in towns and villages. Their proper functioning is a directly business of the community, since disruption affects the entire population.

The community leadership should gradually build up an inventory of these elements by locating them in a commencement instance on a large-scale map (1:v,000 or 1:2,500) of the community. The base maps can exist obtained from the town and country departments or physical planning offices. The route network should indicate the road hierarchy (highway, principal admission to settlement, local streets) and the location of bridges and other civil works such as major road cuts and retaining walls. Similar treatment should be given to the electricity and phone networks and the water system. Residential areas and areas of economic activeness should too be identified.

Various sources can be tapped to obtain this information. H2o, electricity, and telecommunication companies can exist called upon to depict their networks on the maps for the area in question. The local representative of the ministry building of public works or physical planning function tin assist with the identification of the road network and the location of public facilities housing important services.

2. Learning the Operation of Lifelines and Facilities and Their Potential for Disruption past Hurricane

Community leaders should periodically organize cursory sessions in which the engineers or managers responsible for the different lifelines and facilities can explain the workings of their systems to selected residents who may exist involved in disaster preparedness and response. The maps that were prepared earlier should be helpful during these sessions, while at the same fourth dimension detail details can be reviewed and updated. The focus of these sessions should be:

- Identification of the unlike elements that make upwardly the system, their interaction, and their interdependency.

- How the different elements function, what tin can go incorrect, and what the normal repair and maintenance procedures are.

- How each of the elements of the system tin exist affected by the forces accompanying a hurricane.

- What the consequences of a hurricane could exist for the operation of the system and for the users.

WHAT ARE THE LIFELINE NETWORKS:

Route network, with roads, bridges, road cuts and retaining walls, elevated roads, drainage works.

Water system, with surface intakes, wells, pipelines, treatment plants, pumping stations, storage tanks or reservoirs, water mains, and distribution network.

Electricity organization, with generating establish, manual lines, substations, transformers, and distribution network.

Telecommunications, with footing station, exchanges, microwave manual towers, aerial and underground cables, and open line distribution network.

Sanitation system, with collector network, handling institute and sewage fallout; public washrooms and toilet facilities; solid waste material collection and disposal.

WHAT ARE THE CRITICAL FACILITIES:

Hospitals, wellness centers, schools, churches.

Fire stations, police stations, community centers, shelters, and other public buildings that house vital functions that play a function in emergencies.

three. Checking the Vulnerability of the Lifelines and Facilities through Field Inspection and Investigation

The vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure elements volition be adamant first of all by their location with respect to chance-prone areas. Tempest surges and moving ridge action can inflict severe harm in waterfront and low-lying littoral areas; heavy rains accompanying the hurricanes can crusade wink flooding or riverine flooding along the river banks and in low-lying areas; rain can besides crusade land slippages and mudslides on steep slopes and unstable roadcuts; and structures in exposed areas such as ridges and bluffs are particularly vulnerable to current of air harm.

Hazard-decumbent areas should be systematically identified and located on the lifeline and disquisitional facilities map, to show where lifeline networks and critical facilities may exist especially vulnerable.

The next footstep consists of a visual inspection and ascertainment of all of import infrastructure elements and critical facilities. Details of location and construction that may affect vulnerability should exist noted and recorded on a sheet, together with a brief clarification of the possible damage that may occur.

four. Establishing a Positive Working Relationship with the Agencies and Companies that Manage the Infrastructure and Services of the Customs

Once the customs leadership has collected a fair corporeality of information, a serial of consultations should be organized with the engineers or managers responsible for each of the lifeline and critical facilities of the settlement, or with their local representatives, and further elaboration of the information collected thus far should take place.

Such consultations provide an opportunity for the customs leadership to learn almost the maintenance and emergency repair policies practiced in their settlements by the dissimilar agencies and utility companies, to get to know the officers responsible for carrying out emergency repairs, and to discover out how to contact them nether normal circumstances as well equally in emergencies.

Adept contacts between bureau representatives and customs leadership are of peachy help in exploring the coincidence of interest betwixt the residents on the one mitt and the service agencies and companies on the other. Through effectively managed participation by the residents in such tasks equally monitoring the state of repair of the infrastructure or keeping drains clear, the community can receive better services at a lower cost to the agencies responsible. The bodily hiring of workers or small firms from the settlement to execute some of the agencies' tasks should be encouraged wherever possible.

LEARNING FROM PAST DISASTERS

Very valuable information nigh the vulnerability of modest towns and villages can be obtained past inquiring into the local hurricane impairment history. This is done through interviews with older residents in the community, retired public works officials familiar with the area, and other informants; past searching in old newspapers, and documents; and other means that may exist appropriate in the detail setting.

The information should be organized by event, and within each event by infrastructure element that was afflicted. Damage that resulted from that detail impact should be briefly described. An effort should be made to collect at least the following data:

a. The EVENT:

- engagement of occurrence
- duration
- areas afflicted
- measures of strength (wind speed, acme of overflowing waters)
- other characteristics that distinguish the event from others

b. The particular ELEMENT that was affected:

- class and type of element

- physical characteristics

- any information on what may accept made the element vulnerable at that time-for instance, poor land of repair or accumulated droppings

c. The Damage that was acquired:

- quantitative and qualitative description of direct physical harm
- description of indirect damage, such every bit loss of part, interruption of service, loss of Jobs

five. Developing an Understanding of the Total Risk to the Community

To be meaningful, the view of the take chances posed by hurricanes to a settlement should include the perspective of the population and its economical activities. In such an integrated view, vulnerability is obviously more than than the sum of the technical deficiencies experienced by structures or equipment in the face of excessive natural forces. The traditional sectoral organization of the public system provides a poor footing for an integrated vulnerability analysis, since it tends to overlook the dependency and interaction between dissimilar infrastructure systems, which are oft major determinants of the vulnerability of a society.

The unlike pieces of information collected so far volition have to be put together to create an understanding of the total take a chance to which the settlement tin can be subject, and of the variations of this run a risk within the settlement according to the location and vulnerability of specific elements of the infrastructure. The following techniques have proved helpful in this exercise.

- Creating a visual image

All the information collected earlier is compiled on the large-scale base map of the settlement, either directly on the same map, on acetate overlays, or a few unlike copies. The final number of maps depends on the calibration of the base map and the complexity of the data.

INVOLVING THE Community IN VULNERABILITY REDUCTION

In St. Kitts and Nevis, the Ministry of Educational activity, the Ministry of Public Works, and the Disaster Preparedness Office organized local residents to repair the schools with materials donated by USAID. The school children benefited from safer, more operable buildings, while the community as a whole benefited from having safer hurricane shelters, a function which schoolhouse buildings across the island automatically acquire during the hurricane season.

EXAMPLES FOR Community Activity

Contributions that local communities can make to reducing the vulnerability of their basic services are typically not-structural, and are built effectually routine monitoring and maintenance. Some examples:

- Avert throwing garbage, particularly large objects such as tires, tree branches, and appliances, into gullies and rivers. These tend to accumulate virtually bridges and culverts, forming obstacles to normal water menstruation.

- Do non remove natural vegetation from river and gully banks, and from cut slopes, in society to avoid accelerated erosion of the banks.

- Continue roadside drainage articulate of silt and other objects; pay special attending to crossover culverts.

- Do not remove sand and stones from beaches.

- Keep overhanging branches abroad from electricity and telephone lines.

- Do not tamper with electricity/telephone poles; report any visible signs of deterioration of the poles or their stays.

- Report any visible signs of deterioration to public buildings, paying special attending to roofs and windows.

- Do not interfere with water intakes; report excessive silting or obstructions.

The maps will highlight where chancy events tin strike, who suffers the risks, what functions are threatened, where direct damage can be experienced, and what the level of risk is.

- Creating bear upon scenarios

With the aid of the maps, much tin can be learned about the take chances to which the community is subject field past formulating realistic scenarios of the impact of a hurricane on the settlement and simulating the consequences for population, lifelines, and critical facilities.

These scenarios can be reviewed with various groups in the community. Discussion of the different scenarios creates the perfect background confronting which to first thinking virtually what the customs can exercise to reduce the run a risk, which is after all the purpose of the exercise.

6. Formulating a Mitigation Strategy

The formulation of a strategy to introduce appropriate mitigation measures that answer to the community's priorities is the culmination of all the efforts expended on the vulnerability analysis and risk cess.

It is important that the customs leadership focus on identifying realistic mitigation measures and proposing a elementary implementation strategy. The common pitfall of identifying measures that require substantial funding should be avoided past concentrating on non-structural measures. Typical of the measures that should be emphasized are those that can be integrated into routine maintenance or upgrading of infrastructure; the avoidance of environmental degradation that can decrease the natural protective chapters of resources such every bit sand dunes, mangroves, and other natural vegetative coverage; and prevention past ways of proper planning and design of new investments.

It is also important to institute the role of the different governmental levels and agencies in the country in the implementation of a mitigation strategy. The range of actions under the command of a pocket-size community is plainly quite limited, and depends on the degree of autonomy of the local government, the level of resource it controls, and the expertise it is able to mobilize.

REFERENCES

American Meteorological Society. Proceedings of the 17th Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology, April 7-10, 1987 (Miami, Florida: American Meteorological Club, 1988).

Salary, P. Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Hurricane Gilbert on Coastal and Marine Resources in Jamaica. UNEP Regional Seas Reports and Studies, no. 110 (Kingston, Jamaica, 1989).

Bender, S. "Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Latin America and the Caribbean" in Colloquium on Disasters, Sustainability and Development: A Await to the 1990'south. The Surround Section and the Homo Resources Evolution Division of the World Bank (Washington, D.C.: The Earth Bank, 1989).

Cambers, G. UNESCO Regional Office for Science and Engineering science for Latin America and the Caribbean. An Overview of Coastal Zone Management in Six E Caribbean Islands: Grenada, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kitts, Antigua, East Caribbean Erosion Coasts and Beaches in the Caribbean Islands (Montevideo: COMAR-COSALC, 1985).

Caribbean Disaster News (St. John's, Antigua: UNDRO/PCDPPP). June 1989: "Telecommunication: The Experience of Hurricane Gilbert." September/December 1988, No. xv/16: "Lessons from Contempo Events: Hurricane Gilbert," "Gilbert in the Caribbean," "Gilbert Smashes Jamaica," and "Hurricane Joan."

Collymore, J. Planning Hurricane Mitigation for Caribbean Agriculture (unpublished paper) (Blacksburg, Virginia: Virginia Polytechnic Institute, 1987).

Commonwealth Science Quango. Littoral Zone Direction of the Caribbean Region: A Status Report. Environmental Planning Programme Coastal Zone Direction of Tropical Islands (1987).

Davenport, A.Grand., Georgiou, P.N., and Surry, D. A Hurricane Air current Hazard Written report in the Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica and Belize with Special Consideration to the Influence of the Topography (London, Ontario, Canada: The University of Western Ontario, 1985).

Earthscan Press Conference Certificate no. 34a (Washington, D.C.: Earthscan Washington Bureau, 1983).

ECLAC/UNEP. Natural Disasters Overview. Meeting of Government-Nominated Experts to Review the Draft Action Plan for the Wider Caribbean Region, Caracas, Venezuela, 28 Jan -1 February, 1979 (Caracas: ECLAC/UNEP, 1979).

ESCAP/WMO. Guidelines for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness in Tropical Cyclone Areas (Geneva and Bangkok: ESCAP/WHO/LRLS, 1977).

Frank, N. Testimony before U.S. Business firm of Representatives on August ix, 1984 in Congressional Record (Washington D.C., 1984).

Goldberg, S., Sim, A., and Kohler, R. "An Updated Fine-Grid Version of the Operational Barotropic Hurricane Track Prediction Model" in Proceedings of the 17th Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology, Apr 7-10, 1987 (Miami, Florida: American Meteorological Guild, 1988).

Inter-American Development Bank Newsletter, June, 1989. "Emergency Plan for the Yucatan" (Washington, D.C.: Inter-American Evolution Banking company, 1989).

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Landsberg, H. "Practise Tropical Storms Play a Office in Weather Balance of the Northern Hemisphere?" in Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 65, no. 4 (1960).

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Storm Surge and Hurricane Safety with North Atlantic Tracking Nautical chart (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA).

Neumann, C.J., et al. Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1986 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA, 1987).

Office of Foreign Disaster Help, U.S. Bureau for International Development. Disaster History: Pregnant Information on Major Disasters Worldwide, 1900-Present (Washington, D.C.: OFDA/USAID, 1989).

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Ralph M. Field Associates. Natural Run a risk Mitigation: A Recommended Strategy for Jamaica (Feb, 1984).

Tomblin, J. "Natural Disasters in the Caribbean: A Review of Hazards and Vulnerability" in Caribbean Disaster Preparedness Seminar, Saint Lucia, June, 1979 (Washington, D.C.: OFDA/USAID, 1979).

- "Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Hurricanes: A Review of Natural Hazards and Vulnerability in the Due west Indies" in Ambio, vol. ten, no. six (1981).

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